Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.019719 0.022388 0.025294 0.028695 0.032569 0.036846 0.041932
2025-03-16 0.015189 0.018762 0.023001 0.028405 0.035126 0.043225 0.053748
2025-03-23 0.013196 0.017261 0.022369 0.029275 0.038397 0.050068 0.066197
2025-03-30 0.011141 0.015261 0.020688 0.028382 0.039053 0.053393 0.074234
2025-04-06 0.009752 0.013901 0.019592 0.028001 0.040169 0.057234 0.083151
2025-04-13 0.008443 0.012467 0.018186 0.026951 0.040124 0.059312 0.089622
2025-04-20 0.007899 0.012052 0.018155 0.027832 0.042898 0.065641 0.102916
2025-04-27 0.007389 0.011619 0.018030 0.028520 0.045395 0.071725 0.116388
2025-05-04 0.006985 0.011299 0.018028 0.029368 0.048184 0.078467 0.131530
2025-05-11 0.006399 0.010625 0.017394 0.029120 0.049137 0.082298 0.142184
2025-05-18 0.005941 0.010111 0.016963 0.029145 0.050515 0.086910 0.154559
2025-05-25 0.005456 0.009506 0.016320 0.028737 0.051086 0.090154 0.164789
2025-06-01 0.005173 0.009230 0.016227 0.029304 0.053473 0.096878 0.182177
2025-06-08 0.004778 0.008722 0.015685 0.029017 0.054290 0.100864 0.194914
2025-06-15 0.004596 0.008583 0.015784 0.029906 0.057358 0.109261 0.216941
2025-06-22 0.004184 0.007975 0.014970 0.028992 0.056886 0.110881 0.225718
2025-06-29 0.003882 0.007549 0.014456 0.028603 0.057385 0.114397 0.238643
2025-07-06 0.003526 0.006988 0.013636 0.027530 0.056407 0.114865 0.245237
2025-07-13 0.003429 0.006930 0.013790 0.028430 0.059541 0.123968 0.271154
2025-07-20 0.003315 0.006828 0.013847 0.029133 0.062320 0.132573 0.296861
2025-07-27 0.003225 0.006767 0.013978 0.030001 0.065525 0.142368 0.326246
2025-08-03 0.003032 0.006473 0.013605 0.029747 0.066247 0.146811 0.343793
2025-08-10 0.002880 0.006254 0.013369 0.029772 0.067590 0.152748 0.365448